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**Dark Horse Ratings**
The days of the Dark Horse are numbered, and he's more of a Grey Horse now - long in the tooth and beard! I no longer have the need for the daily grind of updating results and entering races to find a bet. I no longer need to bet as I have enough to last me comfortably and allow me to take things easy. Ten years, from betting 10p Yankees to retiring with no need to worry. So, that's it - no more ratings service and no more Dark Horse collection - as the form will be out of date. The book will still be available, and that explains how to 'do-it-yourself'. That's it, my career is over - but I did what I set out to do and proved that mathematics can provide a sound base to start from. It's been fun, Goodbye.....

**Why Dark Horse Ratings?**
Read this: and then with any questions.

I keep being asked how to look for value bets within a Rating framework, so here's a short lesson: A Speed Rating is a numerical value which represents a horse’s performance, based on the final time of any given race and the going on the course on which the race was run. The higher the number, the better the performance was (in relation to a median standard time). Speed Ratings are interchangeable from track to track, but not necessarily from distance to distance or from Class to Class. A horse who is stepping up in class and that has been posting recent Speed Ratings in the 90’s may in reality be simply faster than a horse dropping out of seemingly better races, but who has been posting Speed Ratings in the 80’s. Since the inclusion of the horse’s performance, based on the final time and the inherent Speed Ratings are one of the most practical starting points for any betting strategy, they are a logical step before applying any other betting principles. A horse’s most recent and next to most recent Speed Figure can provide a strong indication of its raw speed, (providing the distances are the same) and therefore a strong factor as to whether the horse is fast enough to compete with the other entrants he faces in any given contest. In most races, where horses have already had 5 or 6 races under their belt and are unlikely to undergo any further dramatic improvement, 20 to 25 percent of the field can be eliminated by use of Speed Ratings alone. If a horse regularly records figures in the 50's, and is meeting a handful of runners who always run in the 70s, it is safe to say it has little chance. Under most circumstances, these types of horses become automatic discards as they are simply too slow to compete. On the other hand, a horse that earned a poor figure in its last race, but has earned competitive numbers in other previous races, could have had a legitimate excuse for turning in a poor effort. This leads us to our next step in the selection process; to determine how each horse, whether those that have earned more competitive numbers or those that have had disappointing efforts, achieved their figures. Were these figures earned under the same distance and track surface the horse faces today? Did a heavy or ultra fast surface affect a horse’s last performance? Is a horse more likely to return back to its more competitive figures on a fast track? Were the conditions of the last race favourable or unfavourable to a horse’s running style, and did that inflate or deflate its figure? Does the horse’s trainer have a positive recent record, is the stable in form? Or, finally, did a horse suffer a poor performance as a result of a rough trip or poor draw? If a legitimate excuse could be made for a recent poor figure, and that particular horse is going off at generous odds today, there may be an optimum betting opportunity available. Speed Ratings are a valuable tool for all backers. Unfortunately, evaluating and applying Speed Ratings is not as straightforward as the mechanics used in formulating the numbers themselves. The key to utilizing them effectively is finding circumstances where they offer the most value. In most cases, it requires that you go a lot further than looking to see which horse or horses earned the highest figure in their last race. Their real value lies in finding a horse that has had a legitimate excuse for running an inferior figure in its last or next to last recent effort. Dark Horse Ratings use a Master Rating based on a horses last three races, so that the effect of just one anomalous performance is negated – to a certain extent. If Speed Ratings were a perfect science, it would be relatively simple to scan the Ratings and find the fastest runners in each and every race. Picking winners would be as simple as finding horses that earned superior Speed Ratings in their recent outings, and then merely dashing to the betting shop with your latest mortgage payment to reap the rewards. In this perfect world there would be 1-10 shots in every race, and the betting public would make money faster than following insider stock tips. Unfortunately, factors such as the class of the contest, draw, going, trouble in running, stable form, pace, and skill of the rider make the practice of betting on those horses with the highest Speed Ratings both a risky and expensive proposition. It is true that finding horses that have earned the best numbers in their most recent starts are an excellent starting point in uncovering quality entrants with raw speed. However, to foolishly complete your analysis using only this one, angle could be a very costly mistake. It’s amazing, however, how many people fall into this common betting trap and continue to lose money consistently . Unquestionably, evaluating Speed Ratings should be the first priority when starting your daily selection procedure. It’s the most logical place to begin. Speed Ratings are arguably the most powerful handicapping tool ever created. It is essential, however, that you ask yourself some critical questions before narrowing down and betting on only Speed Figures. For example: Was an unusually high figure earned on a fast surface? Did a horse earn a top figure in the mud or on hard ground? Did he earn his figure because a trainer traditionally does exceptionally well with horses at that track or some other favourable trainer-form angle? Did the horse earn its speed figure because he got a perfect stalking trip behind two front-runners that ultimately ran each other into the ground? And, finally, was the speed figure earned on the turf or on an all-weather surface that is different from today's race? If you can find a legitimate reason to find fault with a horse’s recent top figure, you have a strong case for finding what could possibly become a false betting favourite. In doing so this will open the door to many other logical contenders, which are inclined to be ignored by the masses and thus offer good betting value. Reverse psychology Creating a comprehensive list of reasons as to why a horse’s last or penultimate Speed Rating isn't a true indication of its actual ability is relatively simple. At the same time, however, it can be much more advantageous and profitable in the long run to look for horses that earned below par figures but may have had a legitimate reason for doing so. These types of runners are more likely to run better today if conditions are more favourable. The betting public will commonly overlook these types of runners, and solid value will likely be attainable. The use of Speed Ratings have become so widespread that horses that have earned the biggest and most recent numbers are commonly trading at a short price. So, look for horses with below par figures that may have had a legitimate excuse for running poorly. These types of horses are hidden in the past performances each and every day and offer the kind of bets that bring value. A little detective work goes a long way in deciphering Speed Ratings. Did the horse have to take an unusually wide trip which may have affected its final running time and position? Did he run on a track he wasn't suited to and not take well to the muddy surface? Was the horse compromised by an outside or inside draw position? These are the types of questions that you have to ask yourself before becoming hypnotized by that magical number. Successful Speed Figure bettors are those who remain flexible when evaluating current numbers and are able to adjust to changing track conditions, trainer placement or intent, and draws position. Speed Ratings are a tremendous and reliable gauge of a horse’s true ability. They'renot, however, a neat, mechanical numerical system for pointing out magical winners, which many people interpret them to be. I don’t believe such a numerical system exists. You must be aware of the many factors that contribute to a horse running differently today, and learn to capitalize on when the betting public is overlooking some of the obvious contenders.

Please note: Regarding reciprocal links:

I will only consider links with such sites as I deem suitable, as I do not need the income that advertising any sites may bring me - nor would I accept monetary return for adding a link. I will only consider linking to a site that I feel is useful myself and that I feel will be of interest to my visitors. If membership of any site is required I would expect to be given a free trial in order to assess the site in question, such membership does not presume any agreement to provide a link.
Such sites should not contain any connection with anything other than UK, Irish, and European Horse Racing. I will not reciprocate with any sites that are advertising any other forms of betting on any other sports or games and I will not reciprocate for any cash incentives - as I do not believe that would enhance this site or arouse any interest in or from my visitors. I will always check out any site wishing to exchange links, and will respond favourably only to those that I feel would be acceptable to my visitors, and that offer a service that I would personally recommend. I hope that explains why there are so few links here and that it makes you think before asking to exchange with me.